LSU vs Florida NCAAF Pick – Week 7
The Florida Gators and LSU Tigers both come into this Saturdays match.
LSU beat against the Longhorns per week two and moved to Texas. The Gators stifled then-No. 7 Auburn in the Swamp weekend. But during this weeks matchup at Death Valley, the two teams look to take more than a top-four spot in the race .
Floridas defense leads the solution in their opinion. Theyve given that the 8th-fewest offensive touchdowns (5), and have not given up a point from the 4th quarter since their opener. Since he went 11 for 27 with three INTs into making decisions that were several a week Auburn QB Bo Nix flustered.
But Joe Burrow is not Nix. Hes a seasoned quarterback and has led LSU to the offensive launch in SEC history. Theyve averaged 54.6 points-per-game, the maximum in college soccer. That contains the 45 they dropped on Texas on the street.
As 13-point underdogs around BetNow the Gators come in Together with Death Valley awaitings roar. Would the No. cover the spread and 5 grading defense keep this near? Or will the No. 2 passing offense as well as Burrow keep rolling up and win the bet? Heres the breakdown.
Theres very little doubt in Burrows skill . Hes converted to a Heisman candidate, acquiring an immaculate 22/3 TD/INT ratio and 11.5 yards-per-attempt (3rd in the FBS).
He is also working with one of the very best getting groups in the country. The trio of all JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Terrace Marshall Jr. have combined for 19 touchdowns and 73 receptions, with averages over 15 YPC for all three.
Jefferson has great length using his 63 frame and has dominated in some huge games. Chase is a existence on the opposing side. Marshall Jr. will sit until November with a foot injury, however, Derrick Dillon is an experienced goal who can fill the area. It is all part of a passing game that has Burrow at a 78.4% completion percentage.
They will face by far the toughest DB unit they have played with throughout the year. Northwestern State is a FCS team, but here would be the yards-per-attempt composed by the other competitions of LSU: Utah State 103rd, Texas 124th, Vanderbilt 128th, and Georgia Southern 111th.
Even though its safe to say theyve yet to perform with a QB of all the caliber of Burrow florida sits in 33rd. They have played with FCS QBs, a true freshman (Nix), a redshirt freshman making his first start (Jarren Williams, Miami), and Still, C.J. Henderson had been preseason All-American whos living up to his own billing. Shawn Davis creates a ton of havoc at the secondary (111 yards on three INTs). Marco Wilson is somewhat on uneven so far in the other corner spot, but still has a ceiling for a cover guy.
Burrow will face a ominous pass-rush, which will be completely healthy for the first time because their 10 sacks versus Miami. Jabari Zuniga, considered to be their very best pass-rusher coming in to this year, is coming back from injury. With him on one side and Jonathan Greenard (4.0 sacks/6.5 TKFL) across the other, LSUs 63rd-ranked sack rate in their o-line will be tested.
Since Kyle Trask substituted Feleipe Franks (ankle injury) as Floridas quarterback, the Gators have outscored opponents 115-16.
He has to get flustered by an opposing lineup while his awareness must enhance in the pocket. Auburns is arguably the best in the nation, and ranks 11th in lineup yards, according to Football Outsiders.
LSU is ranked 31st and can be 85th in bag rate. They will rely upon blitzing LBs to help throw Trask. The Florida QB is certain in the pocket but is not mobile outside of it. He also sprained a knee and wore a leg brace when he reentered the game.
With the LBs more involved from the pass-rush, All-American safety Grant Delpit needs to come up big in policy. He probably will face off against a matchup nightmare in Florida TE Kyle Pitts (25 receptions). Neutralizing Pitts (65-240lbs, 4.6 40-yard dashboard ) is imperative to LSUs success on D.
LSU–such as Floridas secondary–is often regarded as DBU for the gift they possess on their defenses perimeter. Derek Stingley Jr. is continuing this heritage with performances which should land him around the All-Freshman team, if not longer, in 2019.
On the other side of him would be Kristian Fulton, who allowed the smallest sum of first downs last year out of returning FBS corners. Itll be given an opportunity against a pressured Trask though this group is presently in passing yards allowed per-game, 69th.
Balance is going to be crucial as for Florida, who hasnt got their running game this season, going. A tackle broke at the point on his approach into an 88-yard TD run . Even with this, the Florida o-line ranks 113th based on yards and can be going up against the No. 1 d-line in terms of energy success (short-yardage scenarios ).
Even though the LSU front may not be strong. However, Florida only compiles 3.66 YPA around the ground, and thats like Perines long term and a 76-yard receiver sweep which shut from the Kentucky match.
It puts ways too much pressure on Trask in a hostile environment, if they dont get Dameon or Perine Pierce going regularly.
Florida has earned admiration following week from the college football world. And while I do not expect them to come out at Death Valley with a win against LSU, I really do see this game staying nearer than many.
LSUs offense made unbelievable strides, also Burrow is just one of the QBs from the FBS. However, LSU is not likely to put up 45 or something near this against a defense who is proven at all 3 levels. Their pass-rush has developed with Greenard wreaking chaos.
Since the team has relied on them much too much to change the tide in games, the Gators defense will wear out over time. Marco Wilson is going to be the topic to some late-game PIs from the physical Chase or Jefferson.
However, I do not expect this. Maintaining the game in enough of a slog till afterward makes Florida the proper wager on Saturday.
Prediction: LSU (30) — Florida (20)
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