Bleacher Report’s Expert Consensus Week 13 NFL Picks
Can this get any simpler? Based on the way Bleacher Report’s specialist NFL analysts are currently faring against the spread this season, it certainly can’t get much tougher.
Deciding every match, Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski had another run in Week 12, falling their album to 251-259-18. Individually and as a team, here is the harm through 12 months (last week’s documents in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus choices: 83-87-6 (7-8)
Together with December loomingwe asked longtime sports gambling analyst Dave Tuley if there might be some light at the end of the tube to the gambling public or if the sportsbooks will last to benefit from bigger samples late in the season.
Tuley gave us a hope, but not sufficient to get.
“There was a period under a dozen years back where I had a lot of years in a row where I simply killed it the second half of the year and in December,” he said. “At the time, I felt as though it was just the time of year once the good teams were overrated and the bad teams were underrated, and with parity exactly what it had been, the underdogs were doing a lot better at that time.”
However, Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered advantages in recent Decembers. “Just as bettors want to think that we are becoming smarter the more we see these teams play,” he said,”clearly the oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are, and they are adjusting and which makes it hard also.”
But he believes it is possible to pick out lines that were exaggerated by midseason slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point distribute in favor of the New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that line, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints would be preferred by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were at New Orleans, which will seem high considering that the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak.
“That’s [a manifestation of] how the Saints have been playing,” Tuley said. “For the novels to balance their actions, they must put it at that amount.”
It’s something to remember as we enter this 2018 season’s final month. It might not save your season as a bettor, but any advice helps, if you’ve been after us annually.
Here is what Gagnon, Davenport and Sobleski are thinking heading into the first 16-game slate in more than two months.
Read more: esports betting site
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