ULTIMATE FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIP (UFC)

How to win money betting on Boxing

Boxing may be about two guys standing toe-to-toe in the ring, however when it comes to betting on a fight there is a lot of different points. Jack Houghton explains…

Formats and Tournaments
With the virtual disappearance of all top-flight contests from terrestrial tv in the mid-1990s, boxing became a market betting sport, with most British bookmakers simply pricing up a restricted variety of niches on high-profile events between the likes of Naseem Hamed, Joe Calzaghe and Lennox Lewis.

Nonetheless, in the past few years, with the continuing success of British fighters like Ricky Hatton, Amir Khan, David Haye, Carl Froch and Ricky Hatton; the wide availability of the best international pay-per-view bouts; and the achievement of tournament formats such as the Super Six and the Betfair Prizefighter series; boxing gambling volumes have soared, and the prospective boxing punter has never had much opportunity and choice.

With that chance, however, comes increased risk. With so much on offer, it’s easy to bet on bouts where your understanding and insight is lacking, and that’s why, more than ever, the educated, educated and informed boxing punter will benefit from a substantial advantage in markets that are still often dominated by hype and hyperbole over a rational evaluation of boxing chance.

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Most Popular Markets
Match Odds
Round Betting
Method of Victory
Go the Distance?
Tournament Win Markets

Golden Rules
Look for the worth, not the winner
Much like all betting, long-term boxing profitability can mean eschewing short-term gains. Backing fighters in 1.12 will probably mean that you win a lot of bets, but within a period of months, even if those 1.12-shots should have been longer costs, you’ll discover that you have lost money. Until you’ve determined to avoid this scenario, it is best to ignore the chances on offer in the markets. The very best way to do so is to think about proportions: what chance does every outcome have of happening?

As an example, when Amir Khan fought Carlos Molina at Los Angeles in an attempt to revive his floundering career, it may have been reasonable to state that Khan should had an 80% chance of winning that fight: he had a new trainer that had worked on his defensive abilities and consistency, had fought better opponents, had been established at the weight class, and Molina, although unbeaten, hadn’t shown himself especially adept at quitting his rivals. Molina, in contrast, possibly had a probability of winning, although the draw had a 5% likelihood.

Converting these percentages into odds is simple. Dividing one by 0.80 (80%) gives you odds on Khan winning of 1.25, dividing one by 0.15 gives you chances on Molina winning of 6.70, and dividing one by 0.05 gives you chances on the attraction of 20.0. Armed with all the odds you feel the many different outcomes ought to be, it is now time to look at the markets. In this situation, Khan was a much shorter price – around 1.10 – which meant the value-savvy punter could have laid khan, backed Molina, or left the market alone. Khan won the struggle with a performance as it occurred, but choosing this strategy is far more likely to bring profits than simply financing the fighter you think will win in the paltry odds available.

Don’t overestimate recent form

Humans have a tendency to overplay the importance of events. To borrow the example of economist Ha-Joon Chang, ask most people which invention is more important, the washing machine or the internet, and most will plump for the latter (Betfair punters especially, no doubt), in spite of the fact that there’s a strong argument to state that the availability of inexpensive household appliances from Western societies meant that women had the time to find paid job: which has had a far more significant impact on society than our ability to place bets on our smart-phones.

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ULTIMATE FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIP (UFC)